There is hope on the Horizon! Or is it just the amber glow of this year's boreal forest fire season? Much remains to be seen. Over the past several months both leading into and away from the 2025 federal election, we continue to mull over cyclical news articles, contradicting official statements and worrisome barbershop banter. Are tariffs actually having an impact on the housing market?
Let us step away from the commentary, and lean into the numbers; which never lie. In April the greater Edmonton Area saw 4012 new properties hit the market, a 4.8% increase since last year, while the number of properties sold amounted to 2710, a 13% decrease since the year prior. Despite resounding calls of a complete lack of inventory, the numbers show us that we have had fewer sales and yet improved inventory since April 2024. The HPI index (how much average homes cost in the area) tells us that there has been a 10.8% increase in home prices since 2024. This doesn’t apply to every and all properties, however, and despite this increase in property value we are not recommending that sellers ‘test the market’ with unrealistic pricing to “see what happens”.
Let's face it. We have been in a strong sellers market for nearly 4 years, and buyers are becoming seasoned and experienced in working in a competitive market. It isn’t their first rodeo. They are prepared to wait for the right home, the right opportunity, and are less likely to jump aboard the fear-of-scarcity-train that governed so many of the quick decisions buyers were making in the first years after the pandemic. The number of days that homes are staying on the market is very telling of this.
Homes not priced aggressively (unlike years prior) are having listing teams working harder and longer to bring buyers in the door. Is this signalling a turning point in the market? Are we heading into a buyers market? Perhaps. For the moment, we certainly are seeing a balancing of power amongst sellers and buyers. A more co-operative negotiation is often needed to seal the deal.
So if the real estate market is not yet being impacted by tariffs that are (or not) actively in place, what is? According to Derek Decloet, The current list of US products impacted has been dropped to nearly zero, with some products such as alcohol, coffee and orange juice still tariff vulnerable (May 15, 2025 National Post & Bloomberg News). Well, thankfully Canada has a pretty robust local spirits and liquor industry…a Crown Royal on ice, anyone?
The increase of prices in day-to-day products and goods will have an impact on the cost of living, reducing the expendable income of everyday Canadians. Often luxuries are the initial sacrifices, followed by those hard earned dollars previously reserved for rents and mortgages.
There are an array of factors that can have an impact on both local and national housing statistics that include inter-provincial and international immigration (something Alberta has seen a lot of in the last 2 years), geo-political factors, employment, rate of inflation and yes, even the weather!
If history is our greatest teacher, we should remember that the market will have hills and valleys, and savvy investors, buyers and own homers alike will find success by learning to ride the wave. I would love to hear your thoughts on this.
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Sources:
https://realtorsofedmonton.com/stat-type/monthly-market-statistics/
